Statistics Canada released its August crop production estimate on Wednesday.
In 2022, Canadian farmers are projected to produce more wheat, canola, barley, oats, soybeans and corn for grain than they did in 2021, according to the most recent yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data.
Neil Townsend is chief market analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions.
"I think the one that will catch some headlines will be that canola was dropped by another 400,000 tonnes, so we're just over 19 million at 19.1 million. The wheat crop got a little bit bigger and the durum crop got a little bit smaller but the durum crop still isn't anywhere near the situation what would have been implied from the Saskatchewan government numbers that came out last week," he commented. "It's pretty much what we were expecting. Wheat crops, when they're good they tend to get bigger and that's what we've seen. I'm not talking about any particular farmer. The other crops, oilseeds and pulses, the anecdotal reports from our clients and other people out there is that sort of hit or miss on the yield. I'd say generally canola has sort of been a disappointing one this year, to see a smaller number is in line with maybe what we expected."
Canola yields are expected to increase 44.9% to 39.7 bushels per acre, still below the five-year average of 41.5 bushels per acre from 2016 to 2020.
Nationally, wheat production is projected to increase by 55.6% year over year to 34.7 million tonnes in 2022. The increase in expected total wheat production is largely attributable to spring wheat, which is anticipated to rise by 60.3% to 26.1 million tonnes. This increase is a result of higher anticipated yields (+42.4% to 53.7 bushels per acre) and harvested area (+12.5% to 17.8 million acres). Durum wheat yields are also anticipated to rise (+90.1% to 38.4 bushels per acre), contributing to higher expected production (+101.3% to 6.1 million tonnes).
Townsend gave his thoughts on the harvest so far.
"I think the harvest is pretty good. The weather window is open. People can get in there and do what they want, for the most part. I'd say that the big storyline that we've been hearing is just now as more and more people get into canola, the anecdotal evidence is that canola is just a little bit disappointing and in some cases, pretty disappointing. Then there are a little bit of concerns generally, not everybody, but a little bit of concern about potential disease or putting crops into the bin that maybe don't look as good as you might want. That's not a big thing but it's definitely something we're hearing as well."
He talked about one of the keys going forward.
"Canada needs to seed good numbers on the export side for most of these commodities to really tighten the fundamentals and give us a firmer trajectory upwards in terms of local prices."