Spring run-off is expected to be below normal in Moose Jaw, according to the Water Security Agency’s 2023 Preliminary Runoff Report.  

The report said the below-normal runoff is due to the dry soil conditions that were seen at freeze-up in the early parts of winter, which were the result of low precipitation accumulations in 2022.  

Soil conditions were the driest in Saskatoon and Swift Current and caused extreme agriculture drought-like conditions throughout the 2022 growing season. 

Two early winter snowfall events happened in the Moose Jaw area that did help moisten the soil. The first coming in October and the second is in November. The WSA says that those events could result in two outcomes. The first is, the increased moisture will reduce the capacity in the spring, as the soil will be frozen. 

The second outcome could be reduced frost penetration, as the heavy snow could act like insulation to the soil, which in turn will allow for more moisture to seep into the soil in the spring.  

The WSA will be performing snow surveys in February to get an accurate representation of which outcome is more likely.  

Through three months of winter, the WSA is happy with the amount of snow seen across the region. To date, Moose Jaw has seen 29.1 millmetres of total precipitation, meaning both rain and snow from November to Feb. 16. 

Limited storm systems and intense fog in the Moose Jaw area for January, prevented precipitation to hit the region, along with the well-above-average temperatures.  

The WSA is confident in the long-range forecast by the US National Weather Service that shows that near-normal precipitation accumulations will be seen for the rest of February, into March and April.  

It is important to note that seasonal weather forecasts are statistically unreliable, and their skill is particularly poor for predicting precipitation. 

Looking at the water supply for the region, the report states that winter inflows into Lake Diefenbaker, which is northwest of Moose Jaw, have been close to the historic median.  

In saying that, Lake Diefenbaker’s slightly below-normal water level has caused lower outflows from the Gardiner Dam into the South Saskatchewan River. Flows on the North Saskatchewan River have been normal to above normal throughout the winter months. 

Our neighbours to the southwest are dealing with a varying amount of snowpack. 

In the Maple Creek area, periodic warm temperatures have eliminated most of the snowpack. South of the Cypress Hills and in the Swift Current Creek Basin, a normal snowpack is present. The snowpack southeast of the Cypress Hills, especially in the Frenchman River Basin, appears to be above normal. 

The warm temperatures in January have resulted in a hard and dense snowpack in the southwest region. Depending on what spring has in store, it could mean a prolonged runoff response.  

The WSA will issue a Spring Snowmelt Forecast in early March.  

You read the full detailed report HERE.