With March now six days old and spring's official arrival being 14 days away, some may be wondering when these cold-like temperatures will be behind us and onto milder conditions here in Moose Jaw.
According to an Environment Canada four-week forecast that spans from Mar. 6 until April 3, the signal is showing a downward trend in terms of temperatures.
“Through most of Saskatchewan we do have a signal for below normal temperatures,” says Environment Canada Meteorologist, Natalie Hasell. “That would suggest that the trend of below-normal that we have been in for the last bit will likely continue into the rest of March.”
Looking at the averages for Moose Jaw in March, the temperature usually sits around 2.7 C for a high and the average low is –7.9 C.
According to previous data for March, Moose Jaw saw an average temperature of –4.2 C in 2022, +0.5 C in 2021, –2.8 C for 2020, and –4.9 in 2019.
Hasell notes that when looking at the three-month forecast for March-May, it is suggesting colder than normal temperatures as well.
“In reality, there is no particular tendency over Saskatchewan so it could either way,” adds Hasell. “A blank forecast isn’t a forecast for normal, it’s a forecast saying that there is no dominant trend. We will have to wait and see for March, April, and May.”
This colder-than-normal outlook for March comes after an average February.
The average high for February according to Environment Canada data was –4.1 C, and the average low was –14.4 C.
The warmest February got to was 4.7 C on the 13th and the coldest day was on the 24th when the temperature dropped all the way down to –30.4 C.
February didn’t see a whole lot of precipitation – only 2.2 millimetres to be exact. This is not the case for March though, as it usually sees much more.
“Typically, we’re talking about 19-20 mm.”
Looking back in recent years in terms of precipitation in March, Hasell says that 2022 was dry but not as dry as the 2.2 mm this February saw, in 2021 in Moose Jaw was near normal, 2020 was below normal, and 2019 was extremely dry.
“A lot of variability from one year to the next. That’s pretty typical for most times of the year in the prairies. We can see quite a bit of variability not just in the day-to-date or week-to-week forecast but comparing similar time periods over several years, we see a lot of variabilities.”
On average, March in Moose Jaw sees about 19.7 mm of precipitation.
Looking ahead to this week’s forecast for Moose Jaw snow is expected to hit the area on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. In terms of temperatures, Monday is expected to reach a high of –8 C, -10 C on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a high of –9 C on Thursday.